Ground Beef at $4.08/lb Is Carrying the Cutout — Middle Meats Aren't Pulling Their Weight This Memorial Day

Heading into Memorial Day weekend, the beef market is sending some mixed signals that are worth paying attention to.

The Choice cutout closed this week at $3.93/lb and Select at $3.91/lb — a spread of just $0.04/lb. Historically, you'd expect that spread to be wider heading into grill season. Part of what's compressing it is the weight of ungraded cuts — grinds and trimmings trade outside the Choice/Select grading system entirely, and when they're running heavy in the mix they pull the two numbers closer together. Strip that out and the grade spread loses some of its traditional signal value. What's left still tells you consumers are being more deliberate with their protein dollars.

Ground beef is the story of this cutout. 81% ground beef is trading at $4.08/lb (+30.9% YoY) on the USDA wire. That's carrying more than its share of the load. Chucks are contributing too — chuck rolls are sitting at $5.00/lb (+22.5% YoY) — but it's the grind that is doing the heavy lifting. This time last year middle meats were pulling the cutout into summer. That isn't the case right now.

Retail is telling the same story — but it's not that featuring is light. Retailers are actually featuring beef heavily heading into Memorial Day, with store counts for ribeyes and strips up sharply year over year. The problem is the price points. Retail feature prices are well above last year's numbers: 81's up +16.5% YoY, strips up +3.4% YoY, and bone-in ribeyes up +10.6% YoY. When featured prices climb that far above last year, the loss-leader pull weakens — and the secondary market absorbs the difference. That's the demand signal worth watching.

The national average retail price for all-fresh beef hit a record $9.64/lb in April, up about 13% from a year earlier. Consumers are noticing. When the product is priced out of the feature budget, foot traffic moves elsewhere. That's not a supply story. That's a demand response.
The operators who are watching the right numbers right now aren't looking at the headline cutout. They're watching what's trading, what's featuring, and what retail is willing to put on the loss-leader shelf. Right now, that answer is: less than usual.
My main thoughts going forward:
- Choice/Select spread at $0.04/lb is historically narrow — grinds trading outside the grade system are a factor in that compression

- 81% lean ground beef at $4.08/lb is the lead item carrying the cutout, not middle meats

- Chuck roll at $5.00/lb is performing — value-seeking is showing up across the board

- Retailers are featuring heavily but at prices well above last year — the loss-leader value has eroded

- Supply has been the story, but demand is the variable to watch in Q3

Carpe Diem,
Cody