Fewest Cattle Placed for Any September on Record
USDA Cattle on Feed | Released October 23, 2026
Feedlots took in 1.78 million head in September, 12% fewer than a year ago. That's the lowest September since USDA began this series in 1996, and below every analyst's estimate. Fewer cattle going in now means less beef coming out this winter and next spring, which is supportive for cattle and beef prices.
HOW THE REPORT WORKS: CATTLE IN, CATTLE ON FEED, CATTLE OUT
Placements: 1.78M (−12% vs. Sept 2025)
Young cattle moved into feedlots during the month. They're fed roughly 5–6 months, so this is future beef supply. Expected to reach packers Feb–Mar 2027, with heavier cattle as early as January and lighter calves into April–May.
Cattle on Feed: 11.37M (−0.4% vs. Oct 1, 2025)
Head in feedlots of 1,000+ capacity on October 1. This is the beef pipeline: cattle being finished that will reach packers over the next several months.
Marketings: 1.52M (−7% vs. Sept 2025)
Finished cattle shipped out of feedlots to packing plants. This is the beef supply hitting the market right now.
The math: 11.17M on feed Sept 1 + 1.78M placed − 1.52M marketed − 0.05M other disappearance ≈ 11.37M on feed Oct 1
WHY SEPTEMBER MATTERS
September is one of the biggest placement months of the year, when calves come off summer grass and ship to feedlots. This year's placements still topped August (1.62M), but fell far short of a normal September.
Last year was already weak. Placements dropped to 2.02M, about 6% below 2024, with the U.S. herd at its smallest in decades. This year fell another 12% from that low base.
September placements (million head):
2023: 2.20
2024: 2.16
2025: 2.02
2026: 1.78
Marketings were also the lowest for any September since 1996. Feedlots are holding cattle longer and feeding them heavier, which keeps the on-feed count near last year even with fewer cattle coming in.
THE NUMBERS (1,000+ HEAD FEEDLOTS, U.S.)
On feed Oct 1: 11,418,000 (2025) vs. 11,372,000 (2026), 99.6% of last year. Analysts expected 100.3%. Slightly below.
Placed in September: 2,021,000 vs. 1,777,000, 87.9% of last year. Analysts expected 91.7%. Well below.
Marketed in September: 1,632,000 vs. 1,524,000, 93.4% of last year. Analysts expected 92.8%. Slightly above.
WHAT THIS MEANS
• Tighter beef supply ahead. Cattle that would have been placed this fall would have reached packers roughly January to May 2027. Expect fewer cattle available to packers through the first half of next year.
• Prices likely stay firm to higher. Smaller supply against steady demand usually holds cattle and wholesale beef prices up. Cattle futures will likely respond positively to this report.
• Plan beef purchases early. Expect higher costs and fewer deals. Locking in programs and spring/summer features early matters more than usual.
• Watch the value alternatives. When beef gets expensive, shoppers and diners trade toward value. Pork, chicken and seafood features can help balance menus and cases.
Source: USDA NASS, Cattle on Feed, released October 23, 2026 (nass.usda.gov). Analyst expectations: Dow Jones pre-report survey average, via DTN. Percentages calculated from USDA head counts. For informational purposes only; not trading or investment advice.
Cody Norton, Founder | ClearCut Forecasting