The Ratio Nobody Tracks
How much value do you get back from a carcass versus what you paid for the live animal?
That ratio has been compressing for six straight years. Here's what the USDA data actually shows.
THE SPREAD KEEPS TIGHTENING
Annual avg ratio · cutout value per $1 paid for live cattle · USDA AMS data
YearLive Steer ($/cwt)Choice Cutout ($/cwt)Ratio2019$119$2281.91×2020$109$2412.21×2021$124$2842.29×2022$144$2651.84×2023$176$3011.71×2024$187$3091.65×2025$224$3601.61×2026 YTD$243$3811.57× ↓ –18%
At 2.21× in 2020, a packer had room to work. At 1.57× today, that buffer is gone. Cattle cost is up over 120% since 2019. The cutout hasn't kept pace. Every cut in the box tells a different part of that story.
SAME TREND. DIFFERENT CUTS.
Cut-level ratios · 2019 → 2026 YTD · cut value ÷ live steer cost
The compression isn't uniform across the box. Here's where each cut stands versus its 2021 peak:
Brisket (Deckle-Off)
2026 YTD: 1.89× | Peak: 2.90× (2021) | –22% from peak
Strip Loin (Bnls, 0x1)
2026 YTD: 4.20× | Peak: 6.28× (2021) | –33% from peak
Short Rib
2026 YTD: 2.52× | Peak: 4.75× (2021) | –47% from peak
Chuck Roll (LXL, Neck/Off)
2026 YTD: 2.20× | Peak: 3.06× (2021) | –28% from peak
Every cut in that list peaked in 2021 and has compressed every year since. Short rib has given back nearly half its peak ratio value. Strip loin is down a third. The headline cutout number doesn't show you this — the cut-level ratios do.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR BUYERS AND OPERATORS
The ratio is the number that tells you whether a packer has margin to run or margin to protect. When it's at 2.21×, they can absorb cattle cost volatility and still move product. When it's at 1.57×, every dollar of cattle cost increase comes directly out of operating margin — and the decisions that follow (slower kills, tighter supply, selective selling) are exactly what you're seeing in the market right now.
This is why the cutout headline can look stable while packer behavior signals stress. The ratio is the mechanism underneath it.
We run this ratio for any cut in the beef or pork complex — 100+ cuts tracked weekly, back to 2019. If you want to see where a specific cut stands, reach out or drop it in the comments.
THE DATA BEHIND THE FORECAST
ClearCut tracks the cutout/cattle ratio as a core input to our forecasting engine. The same compression trend visible in this data is part of what drives our Mode 1 and Mode 2 price signals — and why we've been able to call live brisket bookings within 0.2% error at 4 weeks out.
Carpe Diem,
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